Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia interprets Ukrainian support for EU troops as a direct threat and escalates its offensive in an attempt to force a complete withdrawal of these forces from Ukraine's borders. This escalation could involve targeted attacks on key infrastructure, including energy grids and military facilities near the front line. * Confirmation indicators: A significant increase in Russian military activity along the Ukrainian border, particularly in areas with high civilian population density. Increased reports of increased Russian missile strikes targeting Ukrainian cities. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The EU and Ukraine reach a temporary agreement on the deployment of a limited number of troops to support Ukraine's defense, but tensions remain high. This could lead to fur (85% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia interprets Ukrainian support for EU troops as a direct threat and escalates its offensive in an attempt to force a complete withdrawal of these forces from Ukraine's borders. This escalation could involve targeted attacks on key infrastructure, including energy grids and military facilities near the front line. * Confirmation indicators: A significant increase in Russian military activity along the Ukrainian border, particularly in areas with high civilian population density. Increased reports of increased Russian missile strikes targeting Ukrainian cities. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The EU and Ukraine reach a temporary agreement on the deployment of a limited number of troops to support Ukraine's defense, but tensions remain high. This could lead to fur (11% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Forecasts Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Russia interprets Ukrainian support for EU troops as a direct threat and escalates its offensive in an attempt to force a complete withdrawal of these forces from Ukraine's borders. This escalation could involve targeted attacks on key infrastructure, including energy grids and military facilities near the front line. * Confirmation indicators: A significant increase in Russian military activity along the Ukrainian border, particularly in areas with high civilian population density. Increased reports of increased Russian missile strikes targeting Ukrainian cities. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The EU and Ukraine reach a temporary agreement on the deployment of a limited number of troops to support Ukraine's defense, but tensions remain high. This could lead to fur (4% model probability, not a guarantee)