Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 30 days, Thailand's government will fail to implement a comprehensive economic stimulus package, exacerbating the country's trade deficit. This will lead to a 10% devaluation of the Thai baht against the US dollar. 1. Failure to pass the budget by the end of Q2 2026. 2. Increase in import prices due to supply chain disruptions. 3. Decrease in foreign investment inflows. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% By the end of 2026, Thailand's government will successfully navigate the current economic challenges through a combination of fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, maintaining a stable trade balance. 1. Passage of the budget by the end of Q2 2026. 2. Slow but steady increase in export orders from key markets. 3. Gradual improvement in foreign investment sentiment. Scenario C (De- (52% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 30 days, Thailand's government will fail to implement a comprehensive economic stimulus package, exacerbating the country's trade deficit. This will lead to a 10% devaluation of the Thai baht against the US dollar. 1. Failure to pass the budget by the end of Q2 2026. 2. Increase in import prices due to supply chain disruptions. 3. Decrease in foreign investment inflows. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% By the end of 2026, Thailand's government will successfully navigate the current economic challenges through a combination of fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, maintaining a stable trade balance. 1. Passage of the budget by the end of Q2 2026. 2. Slow but steady increase in export orders from key markets. 3. Gradual improvement in foreign investment sentiment. Scenario C (De- (35% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 30 days, Thailand's government will fail to implement a comprehensive economic stimulus package, exacerbating the country's trade deficit. This will lead to a 10% devaluation of the Thai baht against the US dollar. 1. Failure to pass the budget by the end of Q2 2026. 2. Increase in import prices due to supply chain disruptions. 3. Decrease in foreign investment inflows. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% By the end of 2026, Thailand's government will successfully navigate the current economic challenges through a combination of fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, maintaining a stable trade balance. 1. Passage of the budget by the end of Q2 2026. 2. Slow but steady increase in export orders from key markets. 3. Gradual improvement in foreign investment sentiment. Scenario C (De- (13% model probability, not a guarantee)

Is 2026 the Year Thailand’s Economy Bounces Back?

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators