Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran's military doctrine shift leads to increased aggression in the region, including targeting Israeli infrastructure and possibly escalating to direct confrontation with Israel or its allies. This could trigger international condemnation and sanctions from countries like the US and EU. * Confirmation Indicators: * Public statements by Iranian officials explicitly outlining a "take initiative" strategy for military action. * Increased activity in Iranian missile testing facilities, including launches of ballistic missiles with longer range capabilities. * Escalation of cyberattacks against Israeli critical infrastructure. * Time Horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The international community responds to the attacks on Israel by imposing sanctions and diplomatic pr (76% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran's military doctrine shift leads to increased aggression in the region, including targeting Israeli infrastructure and possibly escalating to direct confrontation with Israel or its allies. This could trigger international condemnation and sanctions from countries like the US and EU. * Confirmation Indicators: * Public statements by Iranian officials explicitly outlining a "take initiative" strategy for military action. * Increased activity in Iranian missile testing facilities, including launches of ballistic missiles with longer range capabilities. * Escalation of cyberattacks against Israeli critical infrastructure. * Time Horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The international community responds to the attacks on Israel by imposing sanctions and diplomatic pr (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran's military doctrine shift leads to increased aggression in the region, including targeting Israeli infrastructure and possibly escalating to direct confrontation with Israel or its allies. This could trigger international condemnation and sanctions from countries like the US and EU. * Confirmation Indicators: * Public statements by Iranian officials explicitly outlining a "take initiative" strategy for military action. * Increased activity in Iranian missile testing facilities, including launches of ballistic missiles with longer range capabilities. * Escalation of cyberattacks against Israeli critical infrastructure. * Time Horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The international community responds to the attacks on Israel by imposing sanctions and diplomatic pr (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

‘Strategic doctrine’: Iran hails military shift after Beirut raid response

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators