Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: EU sanctions list expansion triggers heightened tensions between Russia and the West. Diplomatic channels are strained, with increased rhetoric from both sides. This leads to a spike in military spending by NATO countries as they prepare for potential escalation. The Russian ruble weakens against major currencies, causing economic instability. * A formal declaration of sanctions expansion by the EU within 10 days. * Public statements from high-ranking officials in Russia expressing dissatisfaction with the EU's actions and a threat to retaliate. * A sharp increase in military exercises near the Russian border by NATO countries within 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The EU's proposed sanctions list expansion is met with a mix of cautious response and diplo (76% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: EU sanctions list expansion triggers heightened tensions between Russia and the West. Diplomatic channels are strained, with increased rhetoric from both sides. This leads to a spike in military spending by NATO countries as they prepare for potential escalation. The Russian ruble weakens against major currencies, causing economic instability. * A formal declaration of sanctions expansion by the EU within 10 days. * Public statements from high-ranking officials in Russia expressing dissatisfaction with the EU's actions and a threat to retaliate. * A sharp increase in military exercises near the Russian border by NATO countries within 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The EU's proposed sanctions list expansion is met with a mix of cautious response and diplo (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: EU sanctions list expansion triggers heightened tensions between Russia and the West. Diplomatic channels are strained, with increased rhetoric from both sides. This leads to a spike in military spending by NATO countries as they prepare for potential escalation. The Russian ruble weakens against major currencies, causing economic instability. * A formal declaration of sanctions expansion by the EU within 10 days. * Public statements from high-ranking officials in Russia expressing dissatisfaction with the EU's actions and a threat to retaliate. * A sharp increase in military exercises near the Russian border by NATO countries within 2 weeks. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The EU's proposed sanctions list expansion is met with a mix of cautious response and diplo (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

EU planning to add to $1.5 trillion sanctions hit on Russia

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators