S6/10Geopolitical
Kiev deliberately targeted bus carrying Belarusians in Bryansk Region — Russian envoy
Boris Gryzlov noted that it was the second consecutive deliberate strike by Kiev against Belarusian citizens on Russian territory
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 40% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days