S9/10Geopolitical
Trump blames Iran for ‘foolish’ strike on cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz
Fragile US-Iran ceasefire tested as drone strike off Oman draws stern warning from the US president.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 50% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days