S9/10Geopolitical

Iran says it hit military targets in Israel after ceasefire violations

Iran says it hit military targets in Israel after ceasefire violations Iran’s Foreign Ministry says its armed forces struck several “military targets” north of the “occupied Palestinian territories”, after accusing Israel and the US of repeatedly violating the April ceasefire. In a statement, the ministry said the attacks came after a “repeated violation” of the truce between the US, Iran and Israel, including US strikes on Iranian ships and targets in southern Iran. The ceasefire has been in force since April 17 in name only, with Israel repeatedly breaching it. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the country was defending its security and national interests, warning that any attack by Israel on Lebanon or Iran would be met with “a crushing and comprehensive response”.

07 Jun 2026, 22:18 UTCSource: Middle East EyeOriginal source

Click a tag to subscribe via email/Telegram (manage channels in Account).

⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation78% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • Israel launches airstrikes within 48 hours of Iran's initial retaliatory strikes.
  • US imposes sanctions on Iranian financial institutions and shipping routes within 72 hours of the escalation.
  • Reports of increased civilian casualties from both sides within 1 week of the escalation.
Horizon: 7–21 days
B
Status quo16% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • Israel launches airstrikes within 48 hours of Iran's initial retaliatory strikes.
  • US imposes sanctions on Iranian financial institutions and shipping routes within 72 hours of the escalation.
  • Reports of increased civilian casualties from both sides within 1 week of the escalation.
Horizon: 7–21 days
C
De-escalation6% model probability

Confirmation indicators

  • Israel launches airstrikes within 48 hours of Iran's initial retaliatory strikes.
  • US imposes sanctions on Iranian financial institutions and shipping routes within 72 hours of the escalation.
  • Reports of increased civilian casualties from both sides within 1 week of the escalation.
Horizon: 7–21 days