S8/10Geopolitical
Vance Hails ‘Good Day’ of Iran Talks as US Waives Oil Sanctions
US Vice President JD Vance said talks with Iran over the weekend were “very, very good,” as the sides attempt to reach a peace deal within two months and formally end a war that’s reverberated through the global economy.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 60% model probability
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво— 29% model probability
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация— 11% model probability
Horizon: 7–30 days