S9/10Geopolitical
Iran launches missiles toward Israel as explosions heard near Jerusalem
Iran launches missiles toward Israel as explosions heard near Jerusalem Explosions were heard in the Jerusalem area and near the northern Dead Sea after Iran launched missiles toward Israel, according to Israeli media and military officials. Israel's Home Front Command said sirens sounded across the greater Tel Aviv area and parts of southern Israel after the launches were detected. The Israeli military said air defence systems were working to intercept the incoming missiles and urged the public to follow safety instructions. Israeli emergency service Magen David Adom said it had received no reports of injuries from an earlier missile attack launched from Yemen.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 89% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Israel launches retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets within 24
- ◆72 hours; Regional powers like Saudi Arabia or UAE publicly express support for Israel's actions and coordinate potential military action; Increased international diplomatic pressure on Iran from the UN Security Council with a high likelihood of sanctions.
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 8% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Israel launches retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets within 24
- ◆72 hours; Regional powers like Saudi Arabia or UAE publicly express support for Israel's actions and coordinate potential military action; Increased international diplomatic pressure on Iran from the UN Security Council with a high likelihood of sanctions.
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Israel launches retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets within 24
- ◆72 hours; Regional powers like Saudi Arabia or UAE publicly express support for Israel's actions and coordinate potential military action; Increased international diplomatic pressure on Iran from the UN Security Council with a high likelihood of sanctions.
Horizon: 7–14 days