S8/10Geopolitical
Zelensky says he had 'positive' talks with Trump envoys on Ukraine war
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he held a positive conversation with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on Monday, signalling renewed efforts to advance diplomacy over the war with Russia. The call came as European leaders backed a proposed meeting between Zelensky and Vladimir Putin to seek a ceasefire.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 60% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased public statements from US officials about further military support for Ukraine within 48 hours.
- ◆Reports of increased Russian military activity along Ukrainian borders within 72 hours.
- ◆Announcement of new sanctions imposed by the EU and G7 countries targeting specific Russian entities and individuals within 10 days.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 29% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased public statements from US officials about further military support for Ukraine within 48 hours.
- ◆Reports of increased Russian military activity along Ukrainian borders within 72 hours.
- ◆Announcement of new sanctions imposed by the EU and G7 countries targeting specific Russian entities and individuals within 10 days.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 11% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased public statements from US officials about further military support for Ukraine within 48 hours.
- ◆Reports of increased Russian military activity along Ukrainian borders within 72 hours.
- ◆Announcement of new sanctions imposed by the EU and G7 countries targeting specific Russian entities and individuals within 10 days.
Horizon: 7–30 days