S8/10Geopolitical

China says it warned off multiple Japanese ‘provocations’ during aircraft carrier drills

China has accused Japanese warplanes and ships of carrying out multiple “provocations” and surveillance operations during a carrier group’s deployment to the western Pacific for live-fire exercises. State broadcaster CCTV released a video on Monday showing at least four “close-range” encounters, and said the Liaoning carrier group had “warned off” the warships and surveillance planes. It included footage of Japanese warships as well as clips of aircraft, at least one of which appeared to have...

22 Jun 2026, 13:00 UTCSource: South China Morning PostOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация72% model probability
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво21% model probability
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация8% model probability
Horizon: 7–30 days