Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% China's nuclear expansion signals an increased risk of escalation in global tensions. Within 14 days, China conducts a major military exercise involving its nuclear-capable forces near disputed territories in the South China Sea. This action is followed by joint US-South Korea military exercises in the region within 3 weeks, escalating tensions and increasing the likelihood of miscalculation and accidental conflict. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% The global community continues to grapple with the implications of China's nuclear expansion, but diplomatic efforts remain focused o (64% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% China's nuclear expansion signals an increased risk of escalation in global tensions. Within 14 days, China conducts a major military exercise involving its nuclear-capable forces near disputed territories in the South China Sea. This action is followed by joint US-South Korea military exercises in the region within 3 weeks, escalating tensions and increasing the likelihood of miscalculation and accidental conflict. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% The global community continues to grapple with the implications of China's nuclear expansion, but diplomatic efforts remain focused o (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% China's nuclear expansion signals an increased risk of escalation in global tensions. Within 14 days, China conducts a major military exercise involving its nuclear-capable forces near disputed territories in the South China Sea. This action is followed by joint US-South Korea military exercises in the region within 3 weeks, escalating tensions and increasing the likelihood of miscalculation and accidental conflict. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% The global community continues to grapple with the implications of China's nuclear expansion, but diplomatic efforts remain focused o (10% model probability, not a guarantee)

China adds warheads as nuclear powers ‘walk away’ from disarmament: SIPRI

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators