S8/10Geopolitical
IRGC says it struck Israeli air bases in retaliation
IRGC says it struck Israeli air bases in retaliation Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it launched attacks on Israel’s Nevatim and Tel Nof air bases, describing the operation as a response to recent Israeli strikes on radar installations inside Iran. In a statement, the IRGC said the attacks were carried out minutes after Israeli forces targeted radar sites in three areas of the country.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 80% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1) Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding further action. 2) Reports of increased military activity in the region, including air patrols or missile tests by both sides. 3) Confirmation of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets.
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 14% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1) Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding further action. 2) Reports of increased military activity in the region, including air patrols or missile tests by both sides. 3) Confirmation of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets.
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 5% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆1) Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding further action. 2) Reports of increased military activity in the region, including air patrols or missile tests by both sides. 3) Confirmation of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets.
Horizon: 7–14 days