S8/10Geopolitical

Kremlin says Putin will discuss Zelenskyy's "threats" with Lukashenko

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said that Russian ruler Vladimir Putin and self-proclaimed Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko will soon discuss Ukraine's demand that Belarus remove relay transmitters used to guide Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian cities within a week.

22 Jun 2026, 11:12 UTCSource: Ukrainska PravdaOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация74% model probability

Belarus refuses to comply with Ukraine's demand within the week. Russia deploys additional military assets to Belarus, including air defense systems and troops. Tensions increase between Russia and the West. Confirmation Indicators: Increased Russian military activity near Belarusian borders, Ukrainian officials confirm increased troop presence in Belarus, NATO members express concern about escalation. Time Horizon: 7-14 days

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased Russian military activity near Belarusian borders, Ukrainian officials confirm increased troop presence in Belarus, NATO members express concern about escalation. Time Horizon: 7
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Статус-кво19% model probability

Belarus refuses to comply with Ukraine's demand within the week. Russia deploys additional military assets to Belarus, including air defense systems and troops. Tensions increase between Russia and the West. Confirmation Indicators: Increased Russian military activity near Belarusian borders, Ukrainian officials confirm increased troop presence in Belarus, NATO members express concern about escalation. Time Horizon: 7-14 days

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased Russian military activity near Belarusian borders, Ukrainian officials confirm increased troop presence in Belarus, NATO members express concern about escalation. Time Horizon: 7
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
Деэскалация7% model probability

Belarus refuses to comply with Ukraine's demand within the week. Russia deploys additional military assets to Belarus, including air defense systems and troops. Tensions increase between Russia and the West. Confirmation Indicators: Increased Russian military activity near Belarusian borders, Ukrainian officials confirm increased troop presence in Belarus, NATO members express concern about escalation. Time Horizon: 7-14 days

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased Russian military activity near Belarusian borders, Ukrainian officials confirm increased troop presence in Belarus, NATO members express concern about escalation. Time Horizon: 7
Horizon: 7–14 days