S9/10Geopolitical
Houthis join Iran war fight, threatening Red Sea shipping amid Hormuz closure
Yemen's Houthis declared a ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and claimed a missile strike on Israel, with the Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz blockades now simultaneously threatening roughly a third of the world's seaborne oil and gas.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 90% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran within a week.
- ◆Evidence of increased military activity from Iran's proxies in Yemen (e.g., drone sightings, missile launches).
- ◆Reports of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets, including naval vessels or infrastructure.
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 6% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran within a week.
- ◆Evidence of increased military activity from Iran's proxies in Yemen (e.g., drone sightings, missile launches).
- ◆Reports of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets, including naval vessels or infrastructure.
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased diplomatic tensions between Israel and Iran within a week.
- ◆Evidence of increased military activity from Iran's proxies in Yemen (e.g., drone sightings, missile launches).
- ◆Reports of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets, including naval vessels or infrastructure.
Horizon: 7–14 days