S9/10Geopolitical

Hollow Deals, Tricky Negotiations, and State Visits

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide you with expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists. Read more below.***IranThere has been increasing chatter that Washington and Tehran are nearing an agreement that might wind down the war launched by the United States and Israel on Feb. 28. The truce that took effect seven weeks ago has been a prickly affair, with occasional fire at Gulf states and tit-for-tats at sea — including in recent days, which have seen U.S. forces strike missile sites and vessels in southern Iran as well as shooting down The post Hollow Deals, Tricky Negotiations, and State Visits appeared first on War on the Rocks .

28 May 2026, 18:30 UTCSource: War on the RocksOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация69% model probability

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Horizon: 7–30 days