S9/10Geopolitical
Iran, Israel Pledge to End Attacks That Threatened Talks
Heather Conley, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute joined discuss the recent escalation in Iran as well as the development in the Ukraine war. She said that despite Ukraine's military wins, she expects Putin to keep the war going at great cost. (Source: Bloomberg)
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 85% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity along the Israel
- ◆Iran border.
- ◆Reports of civilian casualties or targeted attacks on key infrastructure.
- ◆Diplomatic efforts to deescalate fail, with increased rhetoric from both sides.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 11% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity along the Israel
- ◆Iran border.
- ◆Reports of civilian casualties or targeted attacks on key infrastructure.
- ◆Diplomatic efforts to deescalate fail, with increased rhetoric from both sides.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity along the Israel
- ◆Iran border.
- ◆Reports of civilian casualties or targeted attacks on key infrastructure.
- ◆Diplomatic efforts to deescalate fail, with increased rhetoric from both sides.
Horizon: 7–30 days