S9/10Geopolitical

Iran, Iraq and Syria close airspace after missile fire at Israel

Iran, Iraq and Syria close airspace after missile fire at Israel Iran, Iraq and Syria have closed parts of their airspace after Tehran launched missiles towards Israel in response to its latest attack on Lebanon. Iran shut the airspace over the west of the country after firing the salvo. “Due to safety and security assessments… the western part of the country’s airspace was declared closed until further notice,” Majid Akhavan, spokesman for Iran’s National Civil Aviation Organisation, said in a statement carried by IRNA. Iraq also temporarily closed its airspace and suspended air navigation, with civil aviation officials citing flight safety after the attacks. The Iraqi Civil Aviation Authority said the closure would remain in place for 72 hours. Syria also closed its southern airspace for 12 hours and suspended operations at Damascus Airport.

07 Jun 2026, 20:52 UTCSource: Middle East EyeOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation90% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • Iranian missile strikes on targets within Israel's military infrastructure confirmed by independent sources. Increased activity on social media platforms indicating a shift towards escalation with increased inflammatory rhetoric from Iranian officials.
  • Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days.
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo6% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • Iranian missile strikes on targets within Israel's military infrastructure confirmed by independent sources. Increased activity on social media platforms indicating a shift towards escalation with increased inflammatory rhetoric from Iranian officials.
  • Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days.
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation4% model probability
Did not materialise

Confirmation indicators

  • Iranian missile strikes on targets within Israel's military infrastructure confirmed by independent sources. Increased activity on social media platforms indicating a shift towards escalation with increased inflammatory rhetoric from Iranian officials.
  • Time Horizon: 7 to 14 days.
Horizon: 7–14 days