Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Hizbollah's continued attacks on Israeli targets escalate tensions, leading to an increase in covert Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah positions. This triggers a wider escalation with Iran providing military support to Hizbollah and Israel retaliating with air strikes on Iranian infrastructure. The US and other international actors are pressured to intervene, but their efforts to mediate fail due to conflicting interests and distrust. Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of Israeli military activity near Lebanon's border, Iranian military officials confirming increased deployments in Syria, and a significant spike in cross-border missile launches into Israel. Time horizon: 14 days to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline: The Lebanese crisis remains unresolved as both Israel and Iran continue with their resp (66% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Hizbollah's continued attacks on Israeli targets escalate tensions, leading to an increase in covert Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah positions. This triggers a wider escalation with Iran providing military support to Hizbollah and Israel retaliating with air strikes on Iranian infrastructure. The US and other international actors are pressured to intervene, but their efforts to mediate fail due to conflicting interests and distrust. Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of Israeli military activity near Lebanon's border, Iranian military officials confirming increased deployments in Syria, and a significant spike in cross-border missile launches into Israel. Time horizon: 14 days to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline: The Lebanese crisis remains unresolved as both Israel and Iran continue with their resp (25% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Hizbollah's continued attacks on Israeli targets escalate tensions, leading to an increase in covert Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah positions. This triggers a wider escalation with Iran providing military support to Hizbollah and Israel retaliating with air strikes on Iranian infrastructure. The US and other international actors are pressured to intervene, but their efforts to mediate fail due to conflicting interests and distrust. Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of Israeli military activity near Lebanon's border, Iranian military officials confirming increased deployments in Syria, and a significant spike in cross-border missile launches into Israel. Time horizon: 14 days to 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Baseline: The Lebanese crisis remains unresolved as both Israel and Iran continue with their resp (9% model probability, not a guarantee)