S9/10Geopolitical
Iran fires missiles at Israel after Beirut attack ‘crossed all red lines’
Iran's IRGC says the barrage of missiles is 'a warning' to Israel amid its ongoing siege of Lebanon.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 90% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Iranian officials publicly announce further escalation of attacks on Israeli targets.
- ◆Israel launches airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations in Lebanon.
- ◆Reports of increased tensions between Iran and Israel, including diplomatic expulsions and sanctions threats.
Horizon: 10–20 days
B
Status quo— 6% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Iranian officials publicly announce further escalation of attacks on Israeli targets.
- ◆Israel launches airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations in Lebanon.
- ◆Reports of increased tensions between Iran and Israel, including diplomatic expulsions and sanctions threats.
Horizon: 10–20 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Iranian officials publicly announce further escalation of attacks on Israeli targets.
- ◆Israel launches airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations in Lebanon.
- ◆Reports of increased tensions between Iran and Israel, including diplomatic expulsions and sanctions threats.
Horizon: 10–20 days