Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel's use of ballistic missiles triggers heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. Iran retaliates with increased missile strikes on Israeli targets, potentially escalating to a wider conflict involving regional powers. This could lead to broader international condemnation and sanctions against both nations. * Confirmation indicators: * Public statements from Iranian officials demanding retaliation within a specific timeframe. * Increased military activity near the border between Israel and Iran. * A confirmed attack on an Israeli civilian or strategic target by Iran, potentially involving ballistic missiles. * Time horizon: 7 to 14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The incident triggers diplomatic efforts from regional powers and international organizations to de-escalate (82% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel's use of ballistic missiles triggers heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. Iran retaliates with increased missile strikes on Israeli targets, potentially escalating to a wider conflict involving regional powers. This could lead to broader international condemnation and sanctions against both nations. * Confirmation indicators: * Public statements from Iranian officials demanding retaliation within a specific timeframe. * Increased military activity near the border between Israel and Iran. * A confirmed attack on an Israeli civilian or strategic target by Iran, potentially involving ballistic missiles. * Time horizon: 7 to 14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The incident triggers diplomatic efforts from regional powers and international organizations to de-escalate (13% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel's use of ballistic missiles triggers heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. Iran retaliates with increased missile strikes on Israeli targets, potentially escalating to a wider conflict involving regional powers. This could lead to broader international condemnation and sanctions against both nations. * Confirmation indicators: * Public statements from Iranian officials demanding retaliation within a specific timeframe. * Increased military activity near the border between Israel and Iran. * A confirmed attack on an Israeli civilian or strategic target by Iran, potentially involving ballistic missiles. * Time horizon: 7 to 14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The incident triggers diplomatic efforts from regional powers and international organizations to de-escalate (5% model probability, not a guarantee)