S8/10Geopolitical

Russia attacks Ukraine with Iskander-M missile and 88 drones, air defences intercept 79 UAVs

Russian forces have attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 88 drones of various types since the evening of 21 June. Air defences have intercepted 79 UAVs, but hits by one missile and five drones have been reported.

22 Jun 2026, 06:00 UTCSource: Ukrainska PravdaOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация80% model probability

Russia's attack on Ukraine escalates into a larger-scale conflict with increased military deployments and intensified rhetoric from both sides. This could include: Confirmation indicators: Increased NATO troop presence in Eastern Europe, Russian mobilization of additional troops, formal declaration of war by Russia or an increase in the frequency and intensity of cyberattacks. Time horizon: 1-3 months Impact: A heightened risk of direct mi

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased NATO troop presence in Eastern Europe, Russian mobilization of additional troops, formal declaration of war by Russia or an increase in the frequency and intensity of cyberattacks. Time horizon: 1
  • 3 months Impact: A heightened risk of direct mi
Horizon: 30–90 days
B
Статус-кво14% model probability

Russia's attack on Ukraine escalates into a larger-scale conflict with increased military deployments and intensified rhetoric from both sides. This could include: Confirmation indicators: Increased NATO troop presence in Eastern Europe, Russian mobilization of additional troops, formal declaration of war by Russia or an increase in the frequency and intensity of cyberattacks. Time horizon: 1-3 months Impact: A heightened risk of direct mi

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased NATO troop presence in Eastern Europe, Russian mobilization of additional troops, formal declaration of war by Russia or an increase in the frequency and intensity of cyberattacks. Time horizon: 1
  • 3 months Impact: A heightened risk of direct mi
Horizon: 30–90 days
C
Деэскалация5% model probability

Russia's attack on Ukraine escalates into a larger-scale conflict with increased military deployments and intensified rhetoric from both sides. This could include: Confirmation indicators: Increased NATO troop presence in Eastern Europe, Russian mobilization of additional troops, formal declaration of war by Russia or an increase in the frequency and intensity of cyberattacks. Time horizon: 1-3 months Impact: A heightened risk of direct mi

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased NATO troop presence in Eastern Europe, Russian mobilization of additional troops, formal declaration of war by Russia or an increase in the frequency and intensity of cyberattacks. Time horizon: 1
  • 3 months Impact: A heightened risk of direct mi
Horizon: 30–90 days