S8/10Geopolitical
Israel halts strikes on Iran at Trump's request, says report
Israel halts strikes on Iran at Trump's request, says report Israel has halted strikes on Iran at the request of US President Donald Trump, a senior Israeli official was cited as saying by Israel's Channel 12. The official added that if Hezbollah attacked Israeli towns, Israel would attack the southern suburbs of Beirut. The Channel 12 report, citing the senior Israeli official, also said that Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon would continue at full strength in the coming days.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 78% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Reports of Hezbollah attacks on Israeli towns within the next week. 2) Increased military activity by both Israel and Hezbollah in the region. 3) US President Biden announces potential intervention in the form of air strikes or deployment of troops.
- ◆Time Horizon: Within a month, leading to heightened regional tensions and potential for broader conflict.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 16% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Reports of Hezbollah attacks on Israeli towns within the next week. 2) Increased military activity by both Israel and Hezbollah in the region. 3) US President Biden announces potential intervention in the form of air strikes or deployment of troops.
- ◆Time Horizon: Within a month, leading to heightened regional tensions and potential for broader conflict.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 6% model probability
Confirmation indicators
- ◆1) Reports of Hezbollah attacks on Israeli towns within the next week. 2) Increased military activity by both Israel and Hezbollah in the region. 3) US President Biden announces potential intervention in the form of air strikes or deployment of troops.
- ◆Time Horizon: Within a month, leading to heightened regional tensions and potential for broader conflict.
Horizon: 7–30 days