S6/10Social
How bitter Persian Gulf rivals can make peace the Asean way
“The Emiratis – by far the most hawkish, by far the most pro-Israel country in the [Gulf Cooperation Council] – they’re having conversations with the Iranians that have never happened before,” US Vice-President J.D. Vance told British media outlet UnHerd following the Iran-US negotiations in Switzerland. The Iranians “are certainly talking differently than they have in the past”, he added in a note of cautious optimism, highlighting how both Washington and its allies in the Persian Gulf are...
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 23% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days