S8/10Geopolitical

US and Iranian delegations arrive in Switzerland for peace deal talks

"We're going to hopefully make progress on the nuclear issue, make progress on the Lebanon ceasefire issue," US Vice President JD Vance told reporters.

21 Jun 2026, 07:19 UTCSource: EuronewsOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация58% model probability

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased military activity in the region: Reports of increased drone sightings or naval patrols near Iranian and US naval bases. US
  • Iran diplomatic tensions escalate: Public statements from either side expressing extreme dissatisfaction with the negotiations, potentially leading to a public statement demanding immediate action. Time horizon: 1
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Статус-кво31% model probability

US and Iranian delegations fail to reach agreement on nuclear program restrictions. Tensions escalate with heightened rhetoric from both sides, including public statements from officials. This triggers a series of diplomatic actions: the US imposes sanctions on Iran's energy sector and restricts trade in sensitive technology. Confirmation indicators: Increased military activity near borders of Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. A statement by Ira

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased military activity near borders of Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. A statement by Ira
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация11% model probability

US and Iranian delegations fail to reach agreement on nuclear program restrictions. Tensions escalate with heightened rhetoric from both sides, including public statements from officials. This triggers a series of diplomatic actions: the US imposes sanctions on Iran's energy sector and restricts trade in sensitive technology. Confirmation indicators: Increased military activity near borders of Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. A statement by Ira

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased military activity near borders of Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. A statement by Ira
Horizon: 7–30 days