Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Iranian targets in Iraq or Syria, further escalating tensions. The IRGC responds with a larger-scale missile attack on Israeli civilian infrastructure, possibly targeting key energy facilities or military bases. This triggers a wider regional conflict, potentially involving Hezbollah and other proxy groups. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of increased military activity in the region, including air strikes and ground deployments. A significant escalation in rhetoric from both Israel and Iran, with public statements indicating a willingness to escalate further. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The current situation remains tense, but diplomatic efforts between Israel and Iran continue. The IRGC issues a statement expressing its (89% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Iranian targets in Iraq or Syria, further escalating tensions. The IRGC responds with a larger-scale missile attack on Israeli civilian infrastructure, possibly targeting key energy facilities or military bases. This triggers a wider regional conflict, potentially involving Hezbollah and other proxy groups. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of increased military activity in the region, including air strikes and ground deployments. A significant escalation in rhetoric from both Israel and Iran, with public statements indicating a willingness to escalate further. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The current situation remains tense, but diplomatic efforts between Israel and Iran continue. The IRGC issues a statement expressing its (7% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Iranian targets in Iraq or Syria, further escalating tensions. The IRGC responds with a larger-scale missile attack on Israeli civilian infrastructure, possibly targeting key energy facilities or military bases. This triggers a wider regional conflict, potentially involving Hezbollah and other proxy groups. * Confirmation indicators: Reports of increased military activity in the region, including air strikes and ground deployments. A significant escalation in rhetoric from both Israel and Iran, with public statements indicating a willingness to escalate further. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The current situation remains tense, but diplomatic efforts between Israel and Iran continue. The IRGC issues a statement expressing its (4% model probability, not a guarantee)