S8/10Geopolitical

How to bridge the impasse over Iran’s nuclear programme

If the next phase of negotiations fails, Washington and Tehran could find themselves locked in an endless cycle of war

22 Jun 2026, 16:55 UTCSource: FT WorldOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация69% model probability

Failure to reach a deal on Iran's nuclear program leads to increased military activity from both sides. US sanctions targeting Iranian economy are tightened further, followed by retaliatory measures from Tehran. This escalates into direct confrontation with limited-scale strikes against key infrastructure in Iran (e.g., energy facilities). Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric and threats of military action from both Washington and T

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric and threats of military action from both Washington and T
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво22% model probability

Failure to reach a deal on Iran's nuclear program leads to increased military activity from both sides. US sanctions targeting Iranian economy are tightened further, followed by retaliatory measures from Tehran. This escalates into direct confrontation with limited-scale strikes against key infrastructure in Iran (e.g., energy facilities). Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric and threats of military action from both Washington and T

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric and threats of military action from both Washington and T
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация8% model probability

Failure to reach a deal on Iran's nuclear program leads to increased military activity from both sides. US sanctions targeting Iranian economy are tightened further, followed by retaliatory measures from Tehran. This escalates into direct confrontation with limited-scale strikes against key infrastructure in Iran (e.g., energy facilities). Confirmation indicators: Increased rhetoric and threats of military action from both Washington and T

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased rhetoric and threats of military action from both Washington and T
Horizon: 7–30 days