S8/10Geopolitical
Debris reported in Jordan after Iranian missiles aimed at Israel intercepte
Missiles believed fired from Iran toward Israel were seen over Jordan, with one reportedly intercepted.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 76% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Iran confirms additional missile launches toward Israel within 24 hours. A public statement by an Israeli military official confirming retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets. An increase in regional air traffic disruptions or heightened security measures in major cities across the Middle East.
- ◆Time Horizon: 7
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 17% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Iran confirms additional missile launches toward Israel within 24 hours. A public statement by an Israeli military official confirming retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets. An increase in regional air traffic disruptions or heightened security measures in major cities across the Middle East.
- ◆Time Horizon: 7
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 6% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Iran confirms additional missile launches toward Israel within 24 hours. A public statement by an Israeli military official confirming retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets. An increase in regional air traffic disruptions or heightened security measures in major cities across the Middle East.
- ◆Time Horizon: 7
Horizon: 7–14 days