S9/10Geopolitical
Israel says air defences intercept all Iranian missiles fired so far
Israel says air defences intercept all Iranian missiles fired so far The Israeli military says its air defences have intercepted all Iranian ballistic missiles fired towards Israel so far tonight. It said interception systems were now trying to shoot down another salvo launched from Iran, which triggered sirens across northern Israel.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 86% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased media reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure in Iran.
- ◆Confirmation from intelligence sources about increased missile activity by both sides.
- ◆Public statements from the US and other international players expressing concern and calling for de
- ◆escalation.
Horizon: 7–14 days
B
Status quo— 10% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased media reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure in Iran.
- ◆Confirmation from intelligence sources about increased missile activity by both sides.
- ◆Public statements from the US and other international players expressing concern and calling for de
- ◆escalation.
Horizon: 7–14 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
Did not materialiseConfirmation indicators
- ◆Increased media reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure in Iran.
- ◆Confirmation from intelligence sources about increased missile activity by both sides.
- ◆Public statements from the US and other international players expressing concern and calling for de
- ◆escalation.
Horizon: 7–14 days