Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran confirms missile test as "defense" against Israeli actions in disputed territories. Israel retaliates with targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites, escalating tensions. This triggers a broader regional arms race and an increase in diplomatic pressure from the UN Security Council. * Confirmation Indicators: Iran publicly accuses Israel of aggression, followed by a statement from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard confirming missile test details. Israel acknowledges targeting specific Iranian facilities but refrains from public statements regarding retaliation. * Time Horizon: Escalation within 72 hours, with potential for sustained conflict within 14 days. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Iranian celebrations in Tehran are met with muted response from the international community and li (78% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran confirms missile test as "defense" against Israeli actions in disputed territories. Israel retaliates with targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites, escalating tensions. This triggers a broader regional arms race and an increase in diplomatic pressure from the UN Security Council. * Confirmation Indicators: Iran publicly accuses Israel of aggression, followed by a statement from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard confirming missile test details. Israel acknowledges targeting specific Iranian facilities but refrains from public statements regarding retaliation. * Time Horizon: Escalation within 72 hours, with potential for sustained conflict within 14 days. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Iranian celebrations in Tehran are met with muted response from the international community and li (16% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Iran confirms missile test as "defense" against Israeli actions in disputed territories. Israel retaliates with targeted airstrikes on Iranian military sites, escalating tensions. This triggers a broader regional arms race and an increase in diplomatic pressure from the UN Security Council. * Confirmation Indicators: Iran publicly accuses Israel of aggression, followed by a statement from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard confirming missile test details. Israel acknowledges targeting specific Iranian facilities but refrains from public statements regarding retaliation. * Time Horizon: Escalation within 72 hours, with potential for sustained conflict within 14 days. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Iranian celebrations in Tehran are met with muted response from the international community and li (6% model probability, not a guarantee)

Celebrations seen in Tehran as missiles fly overhead towards Israel

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators