S7/10Economic
RBA Cites Phillips Curve in Bet Its Rate Hikes Won’t Hammer Jobs
Australia’s central bank is betting the interaction between prices and jobs along the Phillips Curve mean its rapid-fire interest rate hikes will damp inflation without pushing unemployment too high, according to Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser.
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
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Эскалация— 46% model probability
Сценарии event-driven intelligence
Confirmation indicators
- ◆RBA rate hike announcement: The RBA announces a further 0.75% interest rate hike in June. Inflation data: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May shows continued high inflation, exceeding the RBA's target. Unemployment data: Unemployment rate drops to 4.5%, showing resilience of labor market despite rate hikes. Time horizon
Horizon: 30–60 days