S9/10Geopolitical
Iraq reopens airspace after Iran ends operation against Israel
Iraq reopens airspace after Iran ends operation against Israel Iraq has reopened its airspace, the country's civil aviation body said on Monday, after Iran announced it was halting attacks on Israel. The Civil Aviation Authority was reopening "Iraqi airspace to flights to and from all airports" and will continue to "monitor and assess the regional situation", it said in a statement. It had announced a 72-hour closure of its airspace on Sunday evening after Iranian missile strikes on Israel, the first since a ceasefire began on 8 April.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Escalation— 89% model probability
:
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity in the region (e.g., drills by Iranian proxies), reports of heightened diplomatic tensions between Iran and Israel, and statements by regional leaders expressing concern about escalating violence.
- ◆Time Horizon: Within 10 days, escalating to a full
- ◆fledged conflict within 2 weeks.
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Status quo— 8% model probability
:
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity in the region (e.g., drills by Iranian proxies), reports of heightened diplomatic tensions between Iran and Israel, and statements by regional leaders expressing concern about escalating violence.
- ◆Time Horizon: Within 10 days, escalating to a full
- ◆fledged conflict within 2 weeks.
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
De-escalation— 4% model probability
:
Confirmation indicators
- ◆Increased military activity in the region (e.g., drills by Iranian proxies), reports of heightened diplomatic tensions between Iran and Israel, and statements by regional leaders expressing concern about escalating violence.
- ◆Time Horizon: Within 10 days, escalating to a full
- ◆fledged conflict within 2 weeks.
Horizon: 7–30 days