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Military··severity 9

Ship-tracking firm says four ships changed course in Hormuz

Ship-tracking firm says four ships changed course in Hormuz Four vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz via the route along Oman’s coast have altered course, ship-tracing firm Windward said. In a post on X, Windward said two of the vessels reversed course and the other two diverted to a central corridor. Iran opposes ships using the southern route through Oman’s territorial waters and has previously attacked at least two vessels travelling that corridor. The attacks triggered retaliatory attacks on Iranian military assets by the US in and around Hormuz. Tehran has repeatedly said it will solely be responsible for managing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz during the 60 days specified in its MoU with the US. On Saturday, Iran’s envoy to China said new fees would be charged to ships transiting Hormuz, but “friendly nations” would receive special treatment.

Сценарии цепочки

Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

80%

Сценарий А (Эскалация) — 80% [Цепочка эскалации: Иран → через 2 недели → атака на американский tanker] Индикаторы подтверждения: - Публичные заявления иранского лидера о готовности к военной реакции. - Зарегистрированные случаи атак на суда в Strait of Hormuz. - Увеличение военных учений и Exercises в регионе. Горизонт: 14–21 день Сценарий Б (Статус-кво) — 15% [Базовый сценарий: Иран → через 1 неделю → отказ от атак] Индикаторы подтверждения: - Публичные заявления иранского л

Первичный источник: Middle East Eye

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