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Geopolitical··severity 8

Minefields, stalled talks keep Strait of Hormuz in strategic limbo

The future of energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz hangs in the balance after negotiations between Iran and the United States in Doha this week ended without an agreement on releasing frozen funds to the Islamic Republic. With Tehran also failing to begin demining the strait, and still threatening to attack ships attempting to leave the Persian Gulf without its permission, neither side has yet met the two key obligations under their June 17 memorandum of understanding (MOU) to freeze the...

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Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

45%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Первичный источник: South China Morning Post

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