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Geopolitical··severity 8

3 tracks are shaping the Middle East’s post-Iran war order

The Iran battlefield might be quieter and diplomacy might have resumed, but the main contest has shifted to the architecture of the Middle East. The question is no longer whether Iran can be contained, the Strait of Hormuz can remain open or another round of escalation can be avoided. The larger issue is who will write the rules after the shock. Three tracks are taking shape. The first is led by the United States and built around the expansion of the Abraham Accords, the integration of Israel...

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Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.

A

Эскалация

63%

Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.

Первичный источник: South China Morning Post

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