Geopolitical··severity 6
Russia not interested in arms race with Europe, European Parliament member says
Fernand Kartheiser described Russia’s approach to resolving the conflict in Ukraine as "strategic patience"
Сценарии цепочки
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
53%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: Russia conducts joint exercises with Belarus near the border with Poland or NATO member states. Increased military presence in Crimea., Time horizon: 2 weeks
B
34%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: Russia conducts joint exercises with Belarus near the border with Poland or NATO member states. Increased military presence in Crimea., Time horizon: 2 weeks
C
13%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: Russia conducts joint exercises with Belarus near the border with Poland or NATO member states. Increased military presence in Crimea., Time horizon: 2 weeks
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