Geopolitical··severity 6
Trump says he is ready to impose sanctions on Russia, Ukraine if no peace deal is made
The US leader explained that in his view, the deadline is "when I see the moment where it's not going to stop"
Сценарии цепочки
Probabilities below are model estimates based on the event chain, horizon, and indicators. They are not outcome guarantees, investment advice, or emergency instructions.
A
43%Escalation
Confirmation indicators: 1) Increased public statements of support for Ukraine by US officials within 24 hours; 2) Russia's announcement of a significant increase in military presence on its border with Ukraine within 48 hours., Time horizon: Escalation begins immediately, with the potential for escalation to full, scale conflict within 10 days.
B
41%Status quo
Confirmation indicators: 1) Increased public statements of support for Ukraine by US officials within 24 hours; 2) Russia's announcement of a significant increase in military presence on its border with Ukraine within 48 hours., Time horizon: Escalation begins immediately, with the potential for escalation to full, scale conflict within 10 days.
C
15%De-escalation
Confirmation indicators: 1) Increased public statements of support for Ukraine by US officials within 24 hours; 2) Russia's announcement of a significant increase in military presence on its border with Ukraine within 48 hours., Time horizon: Escalation begins immediately, with the potential for escalation to full, scale conflict within 10 days.
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