Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% Chain: Armenia's shift away from Russia accelerates as tensions with Azerbaijan escalate. Azerbaijani military exercises near Armenia's border increase, prompting a response from Armenia's defense ministry. This triggers a diplomatic standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan, potentially leading to increased military activity on the border. Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% Chain: Armenia's parliamentary election results in a power-sharing agreement between parties, with a focus on maintaining stability and fostering diplomatic relations with both Russia and Azerbaijan. This could lead to incre (64% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% Chain: Armenia's shift away from Russia accelerates as tensions with Azerbaijan escalate. Azerbaijani military exercises near Armenia's border increase, prompting a response from Armenia's defense ministry. This triggers a diplomatic standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan, potentially leading to increased military activity on the border. Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% Chain: Armenia's parliamentary election results in a power-sharing agreement between parties, with a focus on maintaining stability and fostering diplomatic relations with both Russia and Azerbaijan. This could lead to incre (27% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) - 50% Chain: Armenia's shift away from Russia accelerates as tensions with Azerbaijan escalate. Azerbaijani military exercises near Armenia's border increase, prompting a response from Armenia's defense ministry. This triggers a diplomatic standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan, potentially leading to increased military activity on the border. Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38% Chain: Armenia's parliamentary election results in a power-sharing agreement between parties, with a focus on maintaining stability and fostering diplomatic relations with both Russia and Azerbaijan. This could lead to incre (10% model probability, not a guarantee)