Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Saudi Arabia escalates its response to the incident by deploying additional military forces near the border with Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation with missile strikes against unspecified targets in Saudi Arabia. This escalation could trigger a broader regional conflict, potentially involving other countries like Israel or the UAE. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Public statement from Saudi Arabian government outlining increased military presence and threat level; 2) Unidentified ballistic missile launches towards Saudi Arabia within 72 hours of the initial incident. * Time horizon: 7 days to 14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The incident remains a diplomatic issue, with both sides expressing concern and engaging in low-level communication through intermediaries. The Saudi Civil Defenc (88% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Saudi Arabia escalates its response to the incident by deploying additional military forces near the border with Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation with missile strikes against unspecified targets in Saudi Arabia. This escalation could trigger a broader regional conflict, potentially involving other countries like Israel or the UAE. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Public statement from Saudi Arabian government outlining increased military presence and threat level; 2) Unidentified ballistic missile launches towards Saudi Arabia within 72 hours of the initial incident. * Time horizon: 7 days to 14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The incident remains a diplomatic issue, with both sides expressing concern and engaging in low-level communication through intermediaries. The Saudi Civil Defenc (9% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Saudi Arabia escalates its response to the incident by deploying additional military forces near the border with Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation with missile strikes against unspecified targets in Saudi Arabia. This escalation could trigger a broader regional conflict, potentially involving other countries like Israel or the UAE. * Confirmation indicators: 1) Public statement from Saudi Arabian government outlining increased military presence and threat level; 2) Unidentified ballistic missile launches towards Saudi Arabia within 72 hours of the initial incident. * Time horizon: 7 days to 14 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The incident remains a diplomatic issue, with both sides expressing concern and engaging in low-level communication through intermediaries. The Saudi Civil Defenc (4% model probability, not a guarantee)