Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Armenia's ruling party, fueled by Russian interference and heightened tensions with the EU, escalates its rhetoric against Armenia’s opposition. This leads to a series of escalating actions including sanctions on Armenian businesses and increased military presence in the region. The Kremlin uses this as leverage to demand concessions from the EU, potentially leading to further sanctions or even direct intervention. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased public statements by Russian officials threatening further action against Armenia's opposition; 2) Armenia’s parliament votes on a bill that aligns with Russia’s interests and is seen as hostile towards the West. * Time Horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Armenian government maintains its westward tilt, seeking to mainta (85% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Armenia's ruling party, fueled by Russian interference and heightened tensions with the EU, escalates its rhetoric against Armenia’s opposition. This leads to a series of escalating actions including sanctions on Armenian businesses and increased military presence in the region. The Kremlin uses this as leverage to demand concessions from the EU, potentially leading to further sanctions or even direct intervention. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased public statements by Russian officials threatening further action against Armenia's opposition; 2) Armenia’s parliament votes on a bill that aligns with Russia’s interests and is seen as hostile towards the West. * Time Horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Armenian government maintains its westward tilt, seeking to mainta (11% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Armenia's ruling party, fueled by Russian interference and heightened tensions with the EU, escalates its rhetoric against Armenia’s opposition. This leads to a series of escalating actions including sanctions on Armenian businesses and increased military presence in the region. The Kremlin uses this as leverage to demand concessions from the EU, potentially leading to further sanctions or even direct intervention. * Confirmation Indicators: 1) Increased public statements by Russian officials threatening further action against Armenia's opposition; 2) Armenia’s parliament votes on a bill that aligns with Russia’s interests and is seen as hostile towards the West. * Time Horizon: 30-60 days Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The Armenian government maintains its westward tilt, seeking to mainta (4% model probability, not a guarantee)

Премьер-министр Армении добился победы на выборах «с самой высокой явкой за десятилетие»

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