Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Escalation in Israel-Iran conflict leads to renewed sanctions on Iranian oil exports and further disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This triggers a surge in global oil prices, potentially exceeding $100/barrel within the next week. * Confirmation Indicators: * Continued reporting of military action between Iran and Israel, including increased targeting of critical infrastructure. * Confirmed breach of ceasefire agreement by either side. * Significant increase in global crude oil futures contracts trading volume. * Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The conflict between Israel and Iran remains contained, with both sides maintaining diplomatic channels to prevent escalation. The Strait of Hormuz sees minimal disruption in oil traffic, resu (83% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Escalation in Israel-Iran conflict leads to renewed sanctions on Iranian oil exports and further disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This triggers a surge in global oil prices, potentially exceeding $100/barrel within the next week. * Confirmation Indicators: * Continued reporting of military action between Iran and Israel, including increased targeting of critical infrastructure. * Confirmed breach of ceasefire agreement by either side. * Significant increase in global crude oil futures contracts trading volume. * Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The conflict between Israel and Iran remains contained, with both sides maintaining diplomatic channels to prevent escalation. The Strait of Hormuz sees minimal disruption in oil traffic, resu (13% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Escalation in Israel-Iran conflict leads to renewed sanctions on Iranian oil exports and further disruption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This triggers a surge in global oil prices, potentially exceeding $100/barrel within the next week. * Confirmation Indicators: * Continued reporting of military action between Iran and Israel, including increased targeting of critical infrastructure. * Confirmed breach of ceasefire agreement by either side. * Significant increase in global crude oil futures contracts trading volume. * Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The conflict between Israel and Iran remains contained, with both sides maintaining diplomatic channels to prevent escalation. The Strait of Hormuz sees minimal disruption in oil traffic, resu (5% model probability, not a guarantee)

МАЙЯ: Янг: Настоящим победителем в походе ОПЕК+ является Россия

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