Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Persistent inflation leads to aggressive action by the Federal Reserve. The US central bank raises interest rates significantly at its upcoming meeting on June 1st, 2026. This triggers a global sell-off in risk assets as investors anticipate further tightening and reduced economic growth prospects. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach, opting for a smaller interest rate hike of 0.25% at its upcoming meeting on June 1st, 2026. Inflation remains elevated but shows signs of easing. This leads to a gradual market stabilization and c (26% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Persistent inflation leads to aggressive action by the Federal Reserve. The US central bank raises interest rates significantly at its upcoming meeting on June 1st, 2026. This triggers a global sell-off in risk assets as investors anticipate further tightening and reduced economic growth prospects. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach, opting for a smaller interest rate hike of 0.25% at its upcoming meeting on June 1st, 2026. Inflation remains elevated but shows signs of easing. This leads to a gradual market stabilization and c (54% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% Chain: Persistent inflation leads to aggressive action by the Federal Reserve. The US central bank raises interest rates significantly at its upcoming meeting on June 1st, 2026. This triggers a global sell-off in risk assets as investors anticipate further tightening and reduced economic growth prospects. Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Chain: The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach, opting for a smaller interest rate hike of 0.25% at its upcoming meeting on June 1st, 2026. Inflation remains elevated but shows signs of easing. This leads to a gradual market stabilization and c (20% model probability, not a guarantee)

US rate hike on the table as inflation persists: Chicago Fed chief

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators