S6/10Geopolitical
India defies West Asia war concerns as Q4 GDP growth hits 7.8%; risks remain ahead
India's economy surged by a better-than-expected 7.8% in the March quarter, exceeding forecasts and pushing FY26 growth to 7.7%. This robust performance was driven by strong private investment and consumption, defying concerns over the West Asia war. The government remains committed to its reform agenda to maintain economic momentum.
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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 23% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days