Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios based on the provided data: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 14 days, if fuel prices continue to rise above $100 per barrel, Delta's decision to resume direct Hong Kong-US flights will lead to increased competition among carriers, prompting a surge in airfare prices. By day 10, airfare prices for flights from Hong Kong to Los Angeles are expected to increase by at least 15% compared to pre-pandemic levels. 1. Fuel price exceeds $105 per barrel 2. Airline industry reports significant increase in bookings 3. Hong Kong Airport Authority announces expansion of airport capacity Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Over the next 21-28 days, Delta's daily flights from Hong Kong to Los Angeles will operate smoothly, with no significant disruptions or changes in airfare prices. As the airline adjusts to (45% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios based on the provided data: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 14 days, if fuel prices continue to rise above $100 per barrel, Delta's decision to resume direct Hong Kong-US flights will lead to increased competition among carriers, prompting a surge in airfare prices. By day 10, airfare prices for flights from Hong Kong to Los Angeles are expected to increase by at least 15% compared to pre-pandemic levels. 1. Fuel price exceeds $105 per barrel 2. Airline industry reports significant increase in bookings 3. Hong Kong Airport Authority announces expansion of airport capacity Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Over the next 21-28 days, Delta's daily flights from Hong Kong to Los Angeles will operate smoothly, with no significant disruptions or changes in airfare prices. As the airline adjusts to (40% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Here are three scenarios based on the provided data: Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% In the next 14 days, if fuel prices continue to rise above $100 per barrel, Delta's decision to resume direct Hong Kong-US flights will lead to increased competition among carriers, prompting a surge in airfare prices. By day 10, airfare prices for flights from Hong Kong to Los Angeles are expected to increase by at least 15% compared to pre-pandemic levels. 1. Fuel price exceeds $105 per barrel 2. Airline industry reports significant increase in bookings 3. Hong Kong Airport Authority announces expansion of airport capacity Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% Over the next 21-28 days, Delta's daily flights from Hong Kong to Los Angeles will operate smoothly, with no significant disruptions or changes in airfare prices. As the airline adjusts to (15% model probability, not a guarantee)

Delta resumes direct Hong Kong-US flights despite higher fuel costs

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators