Question 1

Сценарий A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): Increased tensions between Jordan and Syria could lead to direct military action. Scenario B (Status Quo): The Syrian government continues efforts to dismantle the captagon trade and strengthen security cooperation with Lebanon. Scenario C (De-escalation): A new international agreement is reached to address drug trafficking in the region, including increased cooperation between Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Israel. Confir (86% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Сценарий B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): Increased tensions between Jordan and Syria could lead to direct military action. Scenario B (Status Quo): The Syrian government continues efforts to dismantle the captagon trade and strengthen security cooperation with Lebanon. Scenario C (De-escalation): A new international agreement is reached to address drug trafficking in the region, including increased cooperation between Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Israel. Confir (10% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Сценарий C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): Increased tensions between Jordan and Syria could lead to direct military action. Scenario B (Status Quo): The Syrian government continues efforts to dismantle the captagon trade and strengthen security cooperation with Lebanon. Scenario C (De-escalation): A new international agreement is reached to address drug trafficking in the region, including increased cooperation between Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Israel. Confir (4% model probability, not a guarantee)