Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Pashinyan's government will likely use the Westward tilt as leverage to increase military support from Western allies, potentially leading to increased tensions with Russia. This could manifest in increased arms deliveries and joint exercises between Armenia and NATO member states. * Confirmation indicators: Russia publicly expresses discontent through diplomatic channels, followed by a series of strategic deployments of Russian military forces near the Armenian border. * Time horizon: Within 3-6 months following Pashinyan's victory. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Armenia will continue to maintain its neutral stance on geopolitical tensions, focusing on strengthening economic ties with both West and Russia. This could involve increased trade agreements and diplomatic efforts to secure financi (68% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Pashinyan's government will likely use the Westward tilt as leverage to increase military support from Western allies, potentially leading to increased tensions with Russia. This could manifest in increased arms deliveries and joint exercises between Armenia and NATO member states. * Confirmation indicators: Russia publicly expresses discontent through diplomatic channels, followed by a series of strategic deployments of Russian military forces near the Armenian border. * Time horizon: Within 3-6 months following Pashinyan's victory. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Armenia will continue to maintain its neutral stance on geopolitical tensions, focusing on strengthening economic ties with both West and Russia. This could involve increased trade agreements and diplomatic efforts to secure financi (24% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Pashinyan's government will likely use the Westward tilt as leverage to increase military support from Western allies, potentially leading to increased tensions with Russia. This could manifest in increased arms deliveries and joint exercises between Armenia and NATO member states. * Confirmation indicators: Russia publicly expresses discontent through diplomatic channels, followed by a series of strategic deployments of Russian military forces near the Armenian border. * Time horizon: Within 3-6 months following Pashinyan's victory. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: Armenia will continue to maintain its neutral stance on geopolitical tensions, focusing on strengthening economic ties with both West and Russia. This could involve increased trade agreements and diplomatic efforts to secure financi (9% model probability, not a guarantee)