S9/10Geopolitical

Iran’s chief negotiator warns US against threatening Tehran

Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform earlier that the United States may deliver more strikes against Iran over the situation in Lebanon

21 Jun 2026, 19:31 UTCSource: TASS EnglishOriginal source

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⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация81% model probability

Trump's threat escalates into direct military action against Iran. US strikes on Iranian infrastructure and/or nuclear facilities are confirmed by satellite imagery and intelligence reports. Iran retaliates with missile attacks targeting key US assets in the Middle East, including potential civilian targets. Confirmation indicators: Increased tensions between US and Iranian officials, public statements from both sides indicating an imminen

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased tensions between US and Iranian officials, public statements from both sides indicating an imminen
Horizon: 7–30 days
B
Статус-кво14% model probability

Trump's threat escalates into direct military action against Iran. US strikes on Iranian infrastructure and/or nuclear facilities are confirmed by satellite imagery and intelligence reports. Iran retaliates with missile attacks targeting key US assets in the Middle East, including potential civilian targets. Confirmation indicators: Increased tensions between US and Iranian officials, public statements from both sides indicating an imminen

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased tensions between US and Iranian officials, public statements from both sides indicating an imminen
Horizon: 7–30 days
C
Деэскалация5% model probability

Trump's threat escalates into direct military action against Iran. US strikes on Iranian infrastructure and/or nuclear facilities are confirmed by satellite imagery and intelligence reports. Iran retaliates with missile attacks targeting key US assets in the Middle East, including potential civilian targets. Confirmation indicators: Increased tensions between US and Iranian officials, public statements from both sides indicating an imminen

Confirmation indicators

  • Increased tensions between US and Iranian officials, public statements from both sides indicating an imminen
Horizon: 7–30 days