Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Iran and Israel exchange further strikes within the next 7 days. Tensions escalate as both sides increase military presence near borders, leading to a heightened risk of conflict escalation. This could involve direct confrontation between Israeli forces and Iranian proxy groups in Lebanon or Syria. * Confirmation indicators: Increased activity on social media platforms from both sides, including inflammatory rhetoric and calls for action. A significant spike in global oil prices within the next 48 hours. * Time horizon: 7 days to two weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Baseline: The current truce between Iran and Israel holds for the next 10 days. However, stalled talks between the US and Iran continue, with no clear path forward on nuclear negotiations or regional security. * Confirmation in (63% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Iran and Israel exchange further strikes within the next 7 days. Tensions escalate as both sides increase military presence near borders, leading to a heightened risk of conflict escalation. This could involve direct confrontation between Israeli forces and Iranian proxy groups in Lebanon or Syria. * Confirmation indicators: Increased activity on social media platforms from both sides, including inflammatory rhetoric and calls for action. A significant spike in global oil prices within the next 48 hours. * Time horizon: 7 days to two weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Baseline: The current truce between Iran and Israel holds for the next 10 days. However, stalled talks between the US and Iran continue, with no clear path forward on nuclear negotiations or regional security. * Confirmation in (27% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Iran and Israel exchange further strikes within the next 7 days. Tensions escalate as both sides increase military presence near borders, leading to a heightened risk of conflict escalation. This could involve direct confrontation between Israeli forces and Iranian proxy groups in Lebanon or Syria. * Confirmation indicators: Increased activity on social media platforms from both sides, including inflammatory rhetoric and calls for action. A significant spike in global oil prices within the next 48 hours. * Time horizon: 7 days to two weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Baseline: The current truce between Iran and Israel holds for the next 10 days. However, stalled talks between the US and Iran continue, with no clear path forward on nuclear negotiations or regional security. * Confirmation in (10% model probability, not a guarantee)