Question 1

Scenario A: Escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: WHO Director-General's visit to Uganda triggers increased international attention and funding for Ebola response efforts. This leads to a surge in travel restrictions and border closures, particularly impacting trade routes between DRC and Uganda. The outbreak spreads rapidly within Uganda due to the lack of effective containment measures, leading to a further increase in confirmed cases. * Significant rise in global news coverage about the Ugandan outbreak. * Increased calls for international travel restrictions from various countries. * Rapid increase in confirmed cases within Uganda exceeding 50 per day. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: The WHO visit to Uganda leads to increased awareness and coordination between the Ugandan government and i (39% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 2

Scenario B: Status Quo?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: WHO Director-General's visit to Uganda triggers increased international attention and funding for Ebola response efforts. This leads to a surge in travel restrictions and border closures, particularly impacting trade routes between DRC and Uganda. The outbreak spreads rapidly within Uganda due to the lack of effective containment measures, leading to a further increase in confirmed cases. * Significant rise in global news coverage about the Ugandan outbreak. * Increased calls for international travel restrictions from various countries. * Rapid increase in confirmed cases within Uganda exceeding 50 per day. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: The WHO visit to Uganda leads to increased awareness and coordination between the Ugandan government and i (44% model probability, not a guarantee)

Question 3

Scenario C: De-escalation?

Accepted Answer

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% Chain: WHO Director-General's visit to Uganda triggers increased international attention and funding for Ebola response efforts. This leads to a surge in travel restrictions and border closures, particularly impacting trade routes between DRC and Uganda. The outbreak spreads rapidly within Uganda due to the lack of effective containment measures, leading to a further increase in confirmed cases. * Significant rise in global news coverage about the Ugandan outbreak. * Increased calls for international travel restrictions from various countries. * Rapid increase in confirmed cases within Uganda exceeding 50 per day. Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% Chain: The WHO visit to Uganda leads to increased awareness and coordination between the Ugandan government and i (17% model probability, not a guarantee)

WHO chief visits Ebola-hit Uganda after virus spreads from DRC

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators

Confirmation indicators