S6/10Geopolitical
How New Delhi’s Policy on Ceasefires With Rebel Groups in the Northeast Contributed to Manipur’s Crisis
Abrogation of the ceasefires in Manipur may not be an option for the government as it could spark greater violence.
⚠️ This is a probabilistic forecast, not a guarantee. Accuracy is measured only on resolved scenarios; monitor confirmation indicators below.
A
Эскалация— 32% model probability
Forecast derived from cascade analysis. Watch confirmation indicators below.
Horizon: 7–30 days